Oct. 4, 2009
This is not the time to be approving unnecessary housing developments dependent upon shaky water supplies.
(It never really was , but, hey, this is California and that’s how we roll.)
I’m talking about the Tejon Mountain Village, which goes before the Kern County Board of Supervisors tomorrow for approval.
It already got a green light from the Planning Department and Planning Commission.
Based on the water issues alone, however, it should never have passed “Go.”
According to the environmental impact report, the project’s eventual 3,400 homes, two golf courses, 750 hotel rooms and so on, would be entirely reliant on the notoriously unreliable State Water Project.
This is the same water source that has all but dried up for some ag districts on the valley’s west side because of concerns over a variety of fish species in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta.
The most recent “reliability report”on the state project by the Department of Water Resources pegs its count-on-me factor at between 63 and 68 percent.
But that was waaay back in 2007 when there was just one biological opinion saying the delta smelt needed more water. Since then, another opinion has come out saying other species also need more water.
That brings reliability down to more like 50 percent, according to some local water district folks I’ve spoken with.
That’s not good enough to base a housing development on, not matter how water-wise it is.
And, actually, there’s a lot to love, water-wise, about the Tejon Mountain Village.
County planners won’t issue building permits unless the water district servicing the village, Tejon-Castac Water District, can prove it has a seven-year reserve for indoor water demand. Each building has a water budget, so residents are automatically rationed.Landscaping has to be drought-tolerant. Outdoor irrigation uses recycled water only.
All great ideas that I hope will be incorporated in every new housing development proposal.
The unreliability of the state water, however, makes even such a watertight plan too much of a leap.
Tejon-Castac did use worst-case scenarios in assessing its supply and, of course, always came up flush.
Its ace in the hole, according to the district, is its water banking efforts.
It has more than 30,000 acre feet in the Kern Water and Pioneer banks, combined, which more than establishes that seven-year reserve.
That’s great, but without a steady stream from the state, those won’t be replenished.
Water bank accounts are a finite emergency source, not an ongoing supply.
Tejon Mountain Village spokesman Laer Pearce repeatedly reminded me those banks hold more than a 20-year supply for the village at full build-out (estimated to take between 20 and 30 years).
OK, so does that mean all those houses and the people living in them vanish if/when that supply runs out?
Tejon-Castac contracts for about 5,300 acre feet a year of state water. Reliability being what it is, however, even their own water assessment figured they’re more likely get an average 3,325 acre feet a year.
The last two years, they only got 1,583 and 1,847 acre feet respectively.
On the demand side, the village will use, at full build-out, about 2,100 acre feet (1,000 acre feet is considered “hard” demand for drinking and other indoor use).
Tejon-Castac also supplies the industrial complex at the foot of the Grapevine which will use, at full build-out, about 740 acre feet a year. Another 100 acre feet a year goes to other users so total demand will be close to 3,000 acre feet a year.
Even if Tejon-Castac does get that 3,325 acre feet per year, that doesn’t leave much for savings.
Assuming my water district sources are right, and the state’s reliability is truly at 50 percent and if things get worse, not better in the delta, Tejon Mountain Village could suck those water bank accounts dry in short order.
But unlike crops, houses — even luxury resort homes — can’t be plowed under. Once they’re built, they gotta have water.
We can’t continue to blitheley approve housing developments based on dream water, where everything is fine as long as all the pieces drop exactly into place.
The reality has never lived up to that dream.
That’s why cities (well, other than Bakersfield) all over the state are forcing residents to ration water, farmers are watching crops wither and entire ecosystems are about to seize up.
Supervisors need to look beyond the rosy water numbers Tejon is presenting and keep their votes based firmly in reality.
Opinions expressed in this column are those of Lois Henry, not The Bakersfield Californian. Her column appears Wednesdays and Sundays. Comment at people.bakersfield.com/home/Blog/noholdsbarred, call her at 395-7373 or e-mail lhenry@bakersfield.com
The Board of Supervisors will meet on the Tejon project 9 a.m. Monday at the County Administrative Center, 1115 Truxtun Ave. in Bakersfield.
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